Fool Me Once…

 

 

Canada and Canadians must come to grips with the fact that the United States of America is no longer the friend and reliable ally it once was.  While many Americans want to maintain that longstanding relationship and continue to work within the kinds of legal frameworks that have made our mutual economic and military parentship unique in the world, about a third of the US electorate has no qualms about putting into power a man who shits on America’s friends and makes nice with it’s enemies.  The man is an avatar of a direction in US politics that is not going away anytime soon.  While the next President may be a Democrat of a more internationalist bent, like Joe Biden was, honouring treaties and traditions, it is clear that the one after might as easily be another manifestation of American isolationism and Manifest Destiny thinking, ready to throw all and any under the bus—and perhaps even attempt to rob us of our sovereignty in a ploy of expansionist aggression.

 

It is time for Canada and Canadians to rethink our security.  We cannot count on a benign big brother to be there in times of trouble.  We are on our own, and we’d better get our shit together!  So far, our leaders have mostly been talking about economic security, to armour us against tariffs.  But we also need to be thinking about military armour.  We are going to have to sacrifice some things to pay for another, namely, to build a large and capable military that will accomplish two main goals: 1) prove to the US that we can effectively guard our own extensive landmass and spawling territorial waters, and 2) make Canada too prickly and complicated to invade.  We have to become a giant Finland.

 

To that end, I propose the following as a goal that we should not wait too long to achieve.

 

Defence Strategy for Canada

 

A.      Provide a large enough deterrent in numbers to discourage attacks:

1.      Increase numbers by introducing universal conscription for 19-year-olds (male and female) who must serve 18 months.  There are approximately 400,000 of this age group, but some would receive waivers for medical or religious/ethical reasons.  Thus, each year might bring in 300,000 conscripts who would overlap each other by 6 months, making 600,000 conscripts in total at any given time.  They would have to serve in the reserves until they turned 30.  These would operate primarily within several hundred km of the land borders or coasts to provide deterrence.  Those who did not have to serve but are physically able would have to do equivalent service for 2 years in one of the following: volunteer firefighters, paramedics, forestry (fire mitigation, firefighting, tree planting, trail building), or similar jobs.

2.      Set the full-time professional military at somewhere above 150,000, focusing predominantly on air and naval forces.  There need to be at least 2 Arctic naval squadrons, one for the western Arctic, one for the eastern Arctic, made up of icebreakers (helicopter capable), submarines, and unpiloted sea-, and aircraft.  The Pacific and Atlantic fleets need to have a range of vessels, from coastal patrol to frigate/destroyer types, to larger cruiser command ships, and submarines.  The air force needs to have enough warplanes to have continually occupied airbases in the western and eastern Arctic regions, and near every significant population centre along the southern border, with several bases closer to the territorial centre of the country for backup.

B.      Provide a large range of capabilities to secure Canada’s airspace and the Arctic, thus demonstrating to the USA the significance of Canada as an ally.  This should include advanced surveillance systems, long range missile systems, and satellite capabilities.

C.    Keep the forces up-to-date and experienced by participating in deployments across the globe through NATO and other alliances.  Earn a reputation as a reliable, professional, and resilient force to be reckoned with.

D.    Expand the military industrial base to provide a maximum amount of domestically produced systems.  Partner with various countries with strong industries other than the USA: France, Britian, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Israel, Ukraine, etc.  Make selective deals with US manufacturers for limited types of systems to keep a good rapport without becoming overly dependent.

E.      Pursue an alliance-based defence policy so that Canada never stands alone.

F.       Develop civil defence systems and procedures to foster a prepared populace, should the worst-case scenario ever emerge.  Here, Finland serves as a useful model.  They have bomb shelters, underground facilities, and stocks of preserved foods across the country.  Their government systems are hardened against cyber and physical warfare.

 

 

This would cost a lot of money, and that is where we will need to rearrange our priorities if we are to remain a sovereign nation.  The core social service that all Canadian cherish is our universal healthcare system.  That will have to be guarded and maintained.  Otherwise, we must be prepared to put everything on the table in the name of “becoming Finland” (which, by the way, with a population of only 5 million, has both an impressive military and generous social services).  Unlike Finland, however, our greatest challenge is also a great asset: the size of our territory.  Our systems and plans will be able to take advantage of this to make Canada not worth the effort for any hostile takeover.

 

It's a sad reality (to quote the man: “So sad, so sad.”) but it is where we find ourselves.  If nothing else, I hope this gets the conversation going.