A Ukraine Booster Looks at the Situation in the Middle East on October 9, 2024

 

 

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, I understood immediately what the larger ramifications were for geopolitics and international law.  Unfortunately, I did not understand Ukraine very much because I, like most of us, had bought into the Russian narratives which portrayed Ukraine as a lesser version of Russia, or as a “missing piece” of Russia.  I went back to what history I had learned about eastern Europe and saw many things anew, understanding previous developments in new ways, and coming to appreciate the unique reality of Ukraine.

 

I also understood that the rest of Europe was in danger—the continent where I have many friends and relatives, where I spent a large chunk of my growing up years, the place that is, in effect, my spiritual and intellectual home base.  I had been “studying” Putin (a bit of an overstatement, but let’s call it that) since 2014 and the “little green men” invasions of Crimea and the Donbas.  I read Masha Gessen’s “Man Without a Face” and Bill Browder’s “Red Notice,” and I watched documentaries.  I began to see Russia’s pattern of behaviour that had remained somewhat opaque because its telos was unclear.  And yet, Putin had already told us everything, way back in 2007, at the Munich Security Conference—we just didn’t take him seriously.  But now it was clear: my people were in danger and the people of Ukraine were, remarkably (though, if we had known Ukraine better, not as remarkably as we were programmed to think), bravely, and doggedly holding back the massed forces of the man who would divide Europe to bring all the former Soviet client states under his kleptocratic control in his desire to emulate his edited version of Stalin.

 

And so, I made a commitment (a “vow,” as it were): to learn, to support, and to hold this existential fight before anyone who would listen or read.  While I have watched with disappointment and dread as others lose interest or move on to other crises, I will not, because I have made an inner commitment.  And yet, since October 7, 2023, another conflict is raging that cannot be ignored, which has its own lines of connection to my life.  The fight in Ukraine and the fight around Israel are, whether I like it or not, intertwined.

 

First, some full disclosure: As the child and grandchild of Germans who lived through some or all of the NSDAP regime in Germany, and as part of the generation that first confronted the reality of what their parents or grandparents or other relatives had supported (whether passively, or as enablers, or actively), I carry that generalised sense of guilt and obligation that many Germans of my generation do.  I have a sense that I need to atone for the sins of my people by opposing Antisemitism and supporting the existence of Israel.

 

I was fortunate to grow up in an area of Los Angeles where many of my school friends, several teachers and school principals, our family doctor and family dentist, were all Jewish.  I went to my friend’s bar-mitzvah, learned about Hanukkah with our 4^th grade class from our teacher, who was herself Jewish.  We even put on a Hanukkah presentation for the rest of the school!  It was a great way to grow up because Jews were not “the other”; they were just people in my life.  In fact, it was not until some decades later, when I was looking at my high school yearbook, reminiscing, that I realized just how many of my school mates were Jewish.  Like with all people, some wore their identity on their sleeve while others never mentioned it.

 

So, the scale and intensity of Netanyahu’s response to the October 7, 2024 massacre of Israelis by Hamas has put me into a difficult emotional bind.  Yes, more than 1,200 Israelis were massacred, many others also tortured and abused, and others taken hostage only to be killed.  Israel needed to respond firmly and go after the perpetrators.  One could expect some “collateral damage” (to use that horrible euphemism).  But a year on, the question niggles: do 40,000 dead Gazans and 90,000 injured ones (including children!) count as an acceptable level of “collateral damage?

 

Yes, I realize: Hamas uses human shields and occupies civilian infrastructure, but 130,000 casualties—100 times the number of Israeli dead—is a level of retaliation I am finding hard to accept.  And now the fight is moving to Lebanon—poor, riven and battered Lebanon—to inflict the same harm on Hezbollah.  How many will be acceptable “collateral damage” there?

 

Yes, the toxic actor Iran must be sidelined and defanged just as must Russia.  But I fear now that Russia will only be emboldened in the level of its brutality against the people of Ukraine.  “Look,” the Kremlin will say, “the West will accept the destruction of civilian infrastructure, including schools and hospitals, and the cavalier killing of people who stand in the way if Israel does it, but they criticise us?”  Our arguments about international law, the Geneva Conventions, the UN Charter, the rules-based order, and all the rest ring ever hollower and more self-serving.  Indeed, the current Israeli war of defence and retaliation against Iran comes almost as a gift to Moscow for how it undermines Ukraine.  Indeed, October 7, 2023 was Vladimir Putin’s 71^st birthday.  While there is no proof that the date was chosen for Putin, it does make one wonder about the connections running from Hamas to Tehran to Moscow.  He has asked for help from Iran, and they have obliged in other areas.

 

To acknowledge: the current Middle Eastern war is very bad for the people of Gaza, Lebanon, the West Bank, as well as for the people of Israel being targeted by missile fire.  And perhaps it will become bad for the people of Iran as well.  But this Middle Eastern war is also bad for Ukraine.  Why?  Because it has taken the attention of western electorates off Ukraine.  It has created competition for the military support that Ukraine needs to survive.  And, as I mentioned, it has shown the West to be willing to put up with significant violations of international law and principles of human rights if the perpetrator is one of their own.

 

All of this is bad news for Ukraine and the cause of restoring Ukraine’s territory as a common goal of the international community to uphold the global rules-based order.  It makes the invasion of Ukraine “just another conflict”; and it makes Vladimir Putin, “just another aggressor”, no better or worse than any before him.  I worry about the relativising effect that is being enabled and what it will mean for Ukraine, for Europe, and indeed, for the world.