The Spies Next Door

 

 

If you saw “Black Widow”, you’ll remember that David Harbour and Rachel Weisz played a pair of Soviet spies who had taken on American identities and functioned as a sleeper cell, waiting to be activated.  Their two children were not really theirs, but had been given to them by the KGB—these would grow up to become Natasha and Yelena, Black Widow and her “sister”.

 

Just such a couple, posing as Argentinian immigrants to Slovenia—Ludwig Gisch and Maria Mayer Muñoz—were arrested at the end of 2022, but the story didn’t come into the news until early 2023.  Their real names are Artem Viktorovich Dultsev and Anna Velerevna Dultseva, and unlike the fictional versions in the movie, their two children are actually their own (these are now in foster care in Slovenia).  Since their arrest, numerous such “deep fake” ordinary couples across Europe and even in Brazil have been unmasked or have fled back to Russia.

 

To create such imposter couples takes millions of dollars and years of what is called, “building a legacy”, i.e., living long enough in one place to pass as your fake persona in another, such as these “Argentinian” immigrants who moved to Slovenia.  Slovenia was a strategic choice because it is in the Schengen Zone of the EU, and therefore gives easy access to most of Europe, but has a very small intelligence service.  Nevertheless, that small service did manage to unmask these minions of Moscow.

 

Their trial will begin soon but will be made highly secretive as the information to be handled involves sensitive information.  What we do know is that their communication technology was impressive: so well encrypted that European and American intelligence people have still not been able to crack the code.  Despite their middle-class lifestyle, they were also well financed and served as a conduit for funds to other operatives.

 

Vladimir Putin, the former KGB agent, who was probably involved in supporting people like these back in the day, and who has said in the past that these kinds of spies are the most praiseworthy, loves a good spy war.  He has put the intelligence services of Russia at the head of his state apparatus.  Unlike the Soviet Union, it is not ideology that drives the system, but intelligence and misinformation.  His traditionalist ideology is merely window dressing, designed to win supporters in the west among those who are disgruntled with the direction of their societies.  His real aim is to weaken any rival powers by sowing disunity.

 

So, let’s do a thought experiment.  Let’s say he succeeds.  The United States becomes hamstrung by inner conflict and by default removes itself from global affairs.  The European Union becomes unmanageable.  NATO degenerates into a rump coalition of mostly northern European countries.  Ukraine becomes one of his puppet states.  Other former Soviet satellite states follow suit, most notably in the Balkans.  He brings central Asia solidly back into the fold.  He has his new version of the Soviet empire.  So, what about China?  Beijing will not long let their northern neighbour get too powerful.  For now, Putin is useful to weaken the west.  The day will come when they must undermine “Russia militant” and remind them who’s boss.  Will what’s left of the west then become a pawn in the duel between the two?  Or will Beijing already have the pieces in place to take control of Russia as a puppet state and become the new global hegemon?

 

There is a simple way to stave of such a scenario.  Defeat Putin’s army in Ukraine and send them packing.  It won’t stop China’s ambitions, but it will give them pause.  As for Russia?  I know it may be a lot to hope for, but Japan and Germany became better countries—stable democracies and positive contributors to global affairs—after utter defeat.  It may be beyond reach, but if you don’t have a goal, you’ll never get there.